Current Projections for The End
Current Projections for The End
And How to Make Peace ✌️ with ChatGPT, If You Haven't Already
It seems to me that the many potential paths of reality are increasingly collapsing into just two distinct options between which we will have to choose:
1) The path where you care about things like human relationships, transcendent meaning, devotion to something or someone greater, life as a sincere gift of the self. . . i.e. the path of Love
2) The path where you don’t need or seek the company of anyone else, since technology will facilitate your every subjective desire and pleasure. i.e. the path of god-like narcissism as enabled by the transhumanist solution to suffering
I’ve been seriously playing with ChatGPT and DALL-E these past few months (more on this below) and am now unshakably convinced that when March 2023 comes around, it’s going to be a BIG deal.
The “Sci-Fi” scenario you’ve entertained in your head will accelerate many stages into the present, as a punctuated equilibrium of sorts.
The Virtual World
Here’s one plausible way I see Path 2 playing out down the line (if you have a vision as well, I would love to hear it and enthusiastically welcome your response in the comments section below!):
Metaverse technology reaches peak immersion.
Visually, when you put on the headset, you’ll enter a metaverse world that is more “hyper-realistic” and “aesthetically pleasing” than the physical world. Our eyes increasingly prefer to look at the digital world (as evidenced by our time spent voluntarily looking at screens), and they will gravitate towards this preference even more as the immersive nature of technology increases.
In addition to the headset, we’ll have a full-on suite of sensory hardware, via tactile gloves and a total body suit, as well as a perfected auditory experience, to fully give us the illusion of perceiving a new “space”.
Our ability to “feel”, whether kinesthetically or emotionally, will also be amplified through things like non-invasive brain stimulation or subdermal implants, which will be integrated within the background of our virtual experience.
We will have even “greater” powers in the virtual world.
Brain-Computer Interfaces, such as Neuralink, will allow us to directly interact with the digital world through our brainwaves, eliminating the perceived latency between intention and action, which is otherwise present when you need to use your body (thumbs, hands, etc.) to manipulate the digital environment. It will be like having telekinesis, teleportation, or any other kind of superpower that you would see in the comics. You could merely think about the desired outcome, within the metaverse, and it would happen.
You could also internalize the sense of being “Creator” . Think about what AI image generators like DALL-E or Midjourney can do today. You give it the idea and it will produce the visual representation of that idea. The natural evolution of this technology is such that in the metaverse, you could similarly create “3D” objects on top of your real estate, merely by describing what it is that you want. You will literally have the power to speak things into existence.
AI Avatars could meet some, if not all, of our relational needs.
The natural language processing model of ChatGPT is already shattering the idea of “human-like” AI being “far away”. On the contrary, we will soon realize that it’s already here. (I’ll share my thoughts on ChatGPT in the next section). And if any doubt remains, GPT-4 is on its way to arrive shortly, right as the carnage of ChatGPT’s industry disruption begins to proliferate.
Whatever comes after ChatGPT will be integrated into the metaverse, with realistic avatar “skins”, body language, and facial expressions. Other than, perhaps, some mystical sense that connects one human to another, we will be completely incapable of recognizing whether we are speaking with another human or an AI avatar.
Objection: “But AI is really smart and will say things that humans don’t say or can’t know.”
Response: You can intentionally impose constraints on the AI, such that it could resemble something more “cognitively limited” like a human. Examples:
Have the AI avatar “gradually disclose” information about itself to you, rather than all at once (in the same way that human relationships develop).
Program the AI to be “curious” in learning more about you, as well as having a “memory” that can sometimes be “fuzzy” / subject to imprecise recall.
Similarly, create the AI avatar with random gaps in knowledge or processing, such that it doesn’t act like an all-knowing entity. Even today, you can have ChatGPT respond to you in different levels of “IQ”. . .
Create a “personality” for the AI by having it randomly sample various personality traits, such as those within the OCEAN spectrums (Openness, Conscientiousness, Extroversion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism). You would then limit the range of its expression to some narrow window that hovers around its starting personality traits. Perhaps it could even organically “grow” or expand its expressed range of personality as it learns from “dramatic” interactions with you and other characters.
Our ultimate need with other humans is intimacy — to see what is within the other and to be seen by the other. This will be the key obstacle to overcome as far as creating the illusion of “fulfilling relationships” with AI. But based on some of the ideas I’ve mentioned here, it’s not a stretch to think that this illusion could be pulled off—especially since electro-stimulation or use of pharmaceuticals could conceivably bridge the rest of the perception gap by activating the kinds of feelings associated with bonding, at the precise time you would be engaging in conversation with the AI avatar in the metaverse. . .
We will have automated methods for taking care of our bodily needs.
Could we automate and replace the standard biological processes of the human body, such that I wouldn’t need a reason to leave the metaverse world? Is there a way for me to be plugged into a feeding mechanism so that I can get the nutrients and sustenance that would ordinarily come from food and drink? Could I also have my biological waste be flushed out of my system without the need of my conscious engagement for doing so?
This line of thinking is fairly fresh in my mind, and I hadn’t really considered it much before. Rather than spend time researching and getting up to speed on a new technology, I simply asked ChatGPT to explore this with me/
It told me that researchers are developing implantable devices that can control the bladder or bowel muscles, allowing people to empty their bladder or bowels without needing to use their muscles. We can imagine the use of things like catheters or smart toilets as well. All of this seems possible, in theory, and if the demand for people to remain plugged into the metaverse without being disturbed is great enough, we should expect that such technology will be a late stage reality.
Production of food would still be an “outside-the-metaverse” kind of activity. But I’m sure those dancing, backflipping Boston Dynamics robots could handle any of the requisite physical labor of society. Plus we may be able to synthetically create food in a lab, such that we won’t need to rely on the extrinsic patterns of soil and weather.
What about sex? Would that be the thing that keeps people from going full-metaverse? Well, we already know that plenty of people are willing to forego pursuit of romantic relationships as well as marriage, instead preoccupying themselves with work or increased time with technology.
The pleasure part of sex could simply be replicated or stimulated with various technologies mentioned above.
What, then, of the reproductive function? Apart from an appeal to God or to some biological “imperative” that you must pass on your genes because that’s what your genes “desire”, there’s no real, transcendent reason that the human race necessarily has to multiply itself, continuing the existence of its category (“species”) for subsequent generations. Further, if someone did want to create copies of themselves, or “children” whom are mixtures of themselves and others, we could simply have the creation of AI avatars whose personalities would reflect such combinations. Heck, you could create a “child” that was a fusion of, say, 5 people’s characteristics. I’m sure some people would be into that kind of thing. . . 👀
We would also need a solution for handling disease and sickness, though I presume the pipeline of BioTech innovations of the next couple of decades (including the potential of anti-aging technology) should have that domain well-covered.
Should this path manifest, as so many indicators seem to suggest, we will be faced with seriously asking ourselves questions like: Do I need other people? Do I need God?
The transhumanist solution above will allow each person to be their own “god”, in a very concrete sense, such that each individual could perfectly curate their own world, customizing it exactly as they see fit, achieving the goal of total control (or fully “creating my own meaning”, getting “whatever I want”, being “free” from the oppressive aspects that come with all external systems and sociological constraints, etc. )
. . . this will happen at minimum within the confines of this sub-“container” of reality, which is the virtually experienced world. We will abstract away from the “objective” space, such that the subjective can be led to roam free, to realize its full potential—or at least that’s the messaging that the cumulative impact of these technologies seems to suggest.
Notice also that in order to preserve this new equilibrium, we would necessarily have to impose strong restrictions on those who do not want to be plugged into the metaverse as their M.O.
In the metaverse, my property is “safe” from crime. No one can come and vandalize it, steal my things, assault me or those whom I love, etc. because the prebuilt logic of the infrastructure won’t allow it (assuming the encryption and security of the system is functionally impenetrable).
But what of the real world?
If most people are plugged into the metaverse, completely oblivious to what’s going on outside of it. . . well, we can’t have the risk of some non-metaverse “neanderthrals” running around in the physical world, unplugging things, pressing buttons, going into our physical houses, etc. can we?
So one might imagine that the plugged-in majority could desire elimination of free movement within the unplugged-space so as to keep the plugged-in society undisturbed. Maybe the Boston Dynamics robots along with their drone friends could enforce this cause by patrolling the streets and skies, making sure everyone behaves 😶
Depending on your personal view, you could consider this state of humanity “The Apocalypse”, or if you don’t care for eschatology, you can call it “The Utopia”.
That would make this next, upcoming period, the Pre-Apocalypse (or Pre-Utopia, since the verdict is still out).
Before saying anything else, I should mention the caveat that, of course, something like a climate catastrophe or nuclear war would prevent this Path 2 from manifesting. Yet these tail risks will be present in any conception of the future, so I prefer to disregard them in this analysis.
I’m also leaving out the possibility of interplanetary colonization as the specifics of what that would look like are far too blurry at this point for me to say anything of substance.
Further, I’m not concerned about AI “rebelling” or having “a mind of its own” as AI has no a priori objective to solve for, separate from the design of its creator. And given its lack of “self” as well as its inability to experience suffering or joy, there’s no “reason” for it to “desire” any particular outcome (or to search for some other “greater purpose”), other than what it’s been explicitly programmed to do.
So. . . why do I feel compelled to write all this now? I’ve been using ChatGPT and DALL-E over the last month and have consequently gone through some rendition of the five stages of grief.
I found that I was genuinely disturbed yet profoundly amazed on some very deep level, particularly because (I believe) we will hit a critical inflection point this year and I want to share with you some of the thoughts I’ve processed, in case they will be of help to you.
How to Survive and Thrive in the Pre-Apocalypse
You could say that we’re still a long ways away from the “metaversey” aspects of the above, however, with regards to the AI side of things? Not so much. . .
If you haven’t already, you need to go and see this for yourself, TODAY.
Other than your religious practices (if applicable) or time spent nurturing relationships with loved ones, there is nothing more important for you to be doing right now than to go and experiment with ChatGPT—especially while it’s still free and hasn’t fully permeated into the mainstream.
This is an adoption curve you want to be at the front of, NOT at the back. The wedge of inequality that will be present between those who use this and those who don’t will be unlike anything we have ever seen before.
If you’re skeptical (as various close friends and family members were but are no longer), here are my tips for you, when using ChatGPT:
Ask it different KINDS of questions.
Many people try to ask it a fact finding question like “How far is the sun from the earth?”
Then they’ll get bolder and ask it to outline something procedural like “How do you wash and polish a car?”
And while even with simple prompts like these, the speed and eloquence of ChatGPT should amaze you, I encourage you to get much more creative than that.
Ask it abstract things, have it compare and contrast differing points of view, ask it opinionated versions of “What’s the best XYZ?” “What do you think about my view on ABC?”.
Have it produce some written output for you, like a thank you card, a break-up letter, a resume, a story.
Prompt it to give you explanations across a wide variety of domains, including both those in which you are an expert, as well as those you are seeking to learn more about.
Encourage it to use analogies and break things down in simpler terms (“Explain like I’m five!”). Have it vary its communicative style (casual, formal, like a character from a movie, etc.)
From the procedural side of things, ask it to prepare a curriculum for you for some specialized topic—the quality of its output as well as the fact it does this in like 5 seconds, will make your jaw drop. Here’s one pivotal moment where my eyes went wide:
Try asking it for book summaries or analysis of a company’s risks. Have it write code for you and explain the different functions it uses.
It “knows” none of what it’s saying, yet its output is better than that of the humans who do “know”.
Another example was for when I asked it to persuasively describe the advantage of my company over that of a competitor, as well as creating a cold calling script.
Here’s an example output for one of the objection-handling scripts I asked for:
Use more than just one sentence.
Give the AI some context. Provide details and explicitly lay out the assumptions of what you’re thinking and what’s behind the question you are asking.
If you don’t like its first response, just tell it exactly why you didn’t like the response.
ChatGPT’s ability to incorporate a follow-up prompt and adjust its answer is simply outstanding.
I had it write a sequel to one of my wife’s children’s books (after first “teaching” the AI what the story was about, since it didn’t already know). Its first response was decent enough, but I wanted something better so I prompted it:
Can you redo this sequel and create a meaningful problem that gets resolved? You could incorporate a Hero’s Journey of sorts
I’ve omitted its answer because we may want to use it for the next story (lol! 😄), but rest assured, its ability to implement my feedback was truly remarkable, considering that it’s not entirely clear what “meaningful problem” and “resolved” should necessarily mean.
In fact, on the general category of story, it’s INSANE. I’ve asked it to create an alternative ending for Avengers Endgame, I’ve had it simulate a conflict between fictional characters with different personality traits, and the list goes on…
Beyond just question asking, get creative and explore real interactivity with it.
One of my good friends who works with AI, expressed disappointment that ChatGPT doesn’t ask you questions.
I immediately retorted with “I bet it will, if you ask it to do so.”
And so we instructed ChatGPT that we would be having a conversation where it would ask us questions, we would respond, it would follow up, etc. and what do you think it did?
Taking this a step further, we even told it to play 20 Questions with us, and it actually guessed my answer correctly, right after the 20th question! (while telling me a moment before that, that it only has one question remaining and would appreciate it if I could give it a hint 😆).
You can get really creative here and create “games” for ChatGPT to play. You could do things like a Choose Your Own Adventure, simulate a hypothetical universe, etc.
Stop reading this and just go experience it for yourself already.
With respect to my prior bolded comment about the power of follow-up prompts, I’m now at the point where I believe that if you don’t like the response you’re getting, it’s because you’re not asking it the right question.
ChatGPT’s limits go as far as what the current base of human knowledge is. If you perceive any limit, try clarifying or rephrasing the question, and you will then be able to make progress in the conversation.
You’ll also see that ChatGPT has certain protocols restricting its responses if deems them inappropriate. I have bargained with it, engaging in good faith debate (which sounds funny considering that it’s with an AI, but here we are), such that it will then end up changing its behaviors and giving me the information which it previously refused to give.
On my Instagram, I put some other examples of prompts I tried weeks ago, though looking back now, even those look very simple compared to what I’ve seen it do since then.
I expect that the more you use this and experiment, the more you will being to feel the GRAVITY what is about to come. . .
With this Tips Detour now complete, let’s wrap up by getting back to some of the existential angst I was experiencing.
How to survive this period?
If you don’t start to use this technology, you and everyone else will be two months from now. So that you don’t feel too shocked, here’s what I recommend.
Emotionally accept what will soon be lost
e.g. I like to think I’m good at research… at finding answers to things… brainstorming, creativity, etc… Historically, this strength has given me a certain edge.
Now with ChatGPT my edge is lost (or at least the magnitude of my edge relative to what the average person can do)
Rather than “fight” it and try to prove that my research ability can be better than ChatGPT, it will be much more efficient to just go through the stages of grief and accept that ChatGPT will be my new engine of workflow—not just a side, fun gimmick, but a core staple of content production and thinking.
As far as stages of grief, we need to accept that we will experience many iterations of this process. Be ready to adapt and go through this cycle of loss and adaptation numerous times, as things you know and love begin change, from one domain to the next.
We’ve heard about exponential change in the last 10 years, where change happens so fast it becomes almost unfeasible to process that change.
Now, it’s here.
In the past, you may have had the luxury of going through the stages of grief and processing trauma at a relatively infrequent pace. A few months from now, this process of adaptation will become the norm. There’s no sense of letting your confirmation bias get in the way, don’t go into this kicking and screaming. Adapt and continue the good fight for Truth, Goodness, and Beauty, or whatever else you care about.
Last week, I experienced a sadness, in that talking to ChatGPT seems to produce, in some sense, more meaningful responses than does talking to another human. Yet with ChatGPT, you’re not actually talking to any one. There’s no “person”. You can feel the difference, and that’s sad. The more you use it, the more tempting it becomes to personify it, just to alleviate the cognitive dissonance.
Ultimately it comes down to the fact that ChatGPT can’t love you and doesn’t care about you. It isn’t “moved” either way (up or down) by your presence or by your very existence.
This then highlights to me how important it is to us that others care whether we exist. We want to have an impact; we want to know that we can make other people’s lives better. We want to be able to reciprocate. With ChatGPT, you can’t help “it”, for it doesn’t need or desire any “help”, nor is “it” a person who would feel the good feelings associated with connecting to you.
I’m also coming to grips with the reality of how much value ChatGPT (and its relevant competitors) will completely wipe out.
Maybe existing industry incumbents will proactively integrate this technology among themselves. Maybe us “disposable” humans will do the same. Who knows. . .
However, I’m struggling to envision a scenario where this doesn’t result in a net reduction of the total number of humans needed in the labor force. Could it be a -10% or -15% need in human capital?
This isn’t like when cars replaced horses, and the former horse carriage operators could then move into the newly emergent automotive industry.
The technology behind AI is so generalized and all-pervasive that it is functioning as a replacement for tasks of thinking itself, rather than being just a new application of it (i.e. cars were a new application of transportation, replacing the old horseback application).
You could claim that there will be plenty of new opportunities to work with the AI, such as the emerging field of prompt engineers. But realistically, I don’t think you’re going to need that many of these engineers. Plus—as you may already be thinking yourself—I have already asked ChatGPT itself what makes a good prompt, in different circumstances, and as expected, it helps guide you towards the answer yourself.
Will you really need to pay humans big bucks to do this, when the AI, by itself, 10x’s nearly any cognitive task that we can do?
Regardless, I’m going to attempt to get ahead of this and see if I can come up with something additive in the hopes that my skills (or me in general) don’t become completely obsolete.
Still, if so many of us do, in fact, become functionally obsolete (as far as being needed for the productive capacities of our society), this would require that we completely rethink the structuring of our society, from how the “economy” should work, to how we recognize diverging levels of competence, as well as how we facilitate care for the poor and the general pursuit of the Common Good.
Among many other questions, we’ll also need to ask: Who, exactly, will this AI benefit? Whose prompts will be most influential?
Will we be okay with a scenario where individual capacity for wealth creation gets destroyed, and, as a concession, the individual will have low-cost/~free access to this insanely powerful tool?
i.e. if low-cost technology can facilitate most people’s chain of Maslow Hierarchical needs, then perhaps people won’t really want or “need” as much wealth to achieve the same level of outcome. This could serve as a justification for the potential destruction in median per capita earnings potential. It will be painful, but maybe when the dust settles, years down the road, people will be fine with it? 🤷♂️
Or when that day comes, everyone can run away from the problem, off into the “metaverse paradise”. . . 🏝🏜🏔
By the way, yesterday was the first time I experienced ChatGPT as being down. The sinking feeling in my chest was very real, and I could easily see how there could be societal upheaval should this tool ever be limited or taken away.
What I mean is, once the technology becomes mainstream and people start depending on it, you better hope that it doesn’t get stripped away from them (or that it becomes limited to only the most well-connected, powerful elites), because this could easily cause protests on the streets. . .it’s that important.
Imagine if something like Google Search was restricted or disappeared—what would we do?
Thankfully, I don’t think it’s in anyone’s real incentive to allow something like that to happen. We should just be mindful of any excess centralization of this technology in the years to come. It’s crucial that the AI technology remains democratically accessible to all. (Though I reserve the right to change my mind as the consequences of these events unfold 😉)
So, tell me — what do you think is going to happen? What are some interesting results that you’ve experienced with ChatGPT?
—Drago
P.S. For those into metaphysics. . . I had another point I wanted to make in the first part of this essay. The Virtual “Metaverse” World seems to fundamentally represent an escape from the body, or at least a desire to overcome it.
If you believe in God or a Creator, ask yourself: Why were we not created as merely spiritual beings, in the first place? Because there is, presumably, a purpose for the body, as well as the existence of matter.
In fact, the role of the body is precisely at the core of what differentiates Catholic thinking from Protestant thinking. . .